LEAGUE

THE PROJECT

The statistics that get publicly summarised are the ones the market has already priced. The quantities that actually decide games, wave state, summoner cooldowns, vision asymmetry, effective HP against the real damage profile, are not in the box score. The model that argument produced rates 638 teams from roughly 28,000 games across three seasons. Graded on 144 games it had never seen, it called 66.7% of them against a 52.8% base rate, and every probability it quoted fell inside its confidence interval. Each forecast is committed before kickoff and scored afterwards, because a prediction you can still edit is not a prediction.